Conforming 30 year fixed rates are currently 5.00% with no points (primary residence with 20% down on a single family dwelling, excellent credit, etc.). 

The best jumbo rates are 4.00% with no points for 5/1 ARMS for loan amounts up to $850,000 (Primary residence, SFD, 70% loan to value, Nevada, etc.).

The stock markets gave a relatively weak performance in January, especially after the strength of 2009. Tradition has it that a poor January forecasts an ailing market for most of the rest of the year. And indeed, I suspect it will be a rougher path for at least the first half of this year than it was for the second half of last year.

One of the main problems is that the federal support of interest rates and lending must be withdrawn as soon as possible. The White House is talking (yes, houses can sometimes talk) about supporting today’s weak lending to small businesses, but we aren’t likely to see many new lending/support programs. Indeed, the Fed’s support of low mortgage rates is scheduled to cease at the end of March. You can already feel the worries about this in the inclination of the stock markets to decline.

Interest rates are hanging in there, but it’s difficult not to believe that the end-of-March withdrawal of support will push rates a bit higher. Respected mortgage analysts see rates rising at least a half a percent, which won’t bring down the real estate recovery, such as it is–but won’t help, either.

The path to recovery is indeed a rocky one. Thankfully, it still seems to be headed in the right direction.

Warm regards,

 Steve Peterson

Branch Manager

Sierra Pacific Mortgage

Office: 888-232-7687

Cell: 775-219-7151

Fax: 866-649-3235

February 3, 2010

KEY INDICATORS

Gold $1115.30/ounce [up]

Crude Oil (Brent) $75.10/brl [up]

U.S. Dollar to…

    Euro .7166 [up]

    Japanese Yen 90.38 [up]

6-mo Treasury Bill Yield 0.16%

10-yr Treasury Note Yield 3.65%

[6-mo up 2 bps, 10-yr up 3 bps]

11^th Dist Cost of Funds 1.828%[-]

30-yr Fixed-rate Mortgage 5.39%

15-yr Fixed-rate Mortgage 4.81%

1-yr ARM 4.61%

[HSH averages rates: 30-yr

down 3 bps,15-yr down 5 bps; 1-yr ARM down 12 bps]

Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Applications Index

week ending 1/22

  Overall

    513.9 (down 10.9%; up 9.1%

the week prior)

  Purchase Money Loans

    215.6 (down 3.3%; up 4.4%

            the week prior)

  Refinancing Loans

    2260.4 (down 15.1%; up 10.7%

the week prior)

Jobless Claims 1/23

    470,000 – prior week 482,000 – continuing claims edged to 4.602 m

New-Home Sales Dec

    Down 7.6% from Nov – down 8.6% from Dec 2008

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 4^th quarter 2009

    Up 5.7%

Weekly Commentary

 

“The United States economy saw very strong expansion in the fourth quarter [of 09], but that is unlikely to persist through most of 2010. Instead, the economy will see a period of weak growth until demand fundamentals start to improve toward the end of this year.” [Augustine Faucher, Moody’s Economy.com]

Personal income rose by 0.4% this past December. It had risen a revised 0.5% the month before. As a result, consumer spending was up 0.2% in December—but the savings rate rose once again to 4.8%. Instead of running out and spending the bit of extra cash most Americans are experiencing, they’re saving it, it appears.

At the same time, mortgage applications remain very weak, indicative of little to no improvement for real estate sales volume in the immediate future. The December Pending Home Sales Index, which keeps track of how many new purchase contracts are signed in a given month, rose a tepid 1% after its 16.4% plunge in November.

Mortgage rates are very slightly lower, as the credit markets fearfully anticipate the Fed’s withdrawal from its season of buying up mortgage-backed securities. The Fed, as you doubtless know, has been helping to keep rates low by making sure the massive supply of mortgage-backed securities available for purchase doesn’t exceed the demand from buyers…by being a buyer. As of the end of March—unless the Fed changes its mind—those mortgage-backed securities will have to be purchased by investors. The Fed will remove the training wheels, so to speak.

Analysts have suggested that mortgage rates will climb by at least a half a percent as a result of the Fed’s withdrawal of support. It’s difficult to predict. The Fed’s move, after all, could be perceived as a signal of confidence in the MBS market. But it is probable that we’ll see the markets stirred up, with a tendency toward slightly higher rates, as we move toward the end of March.

It is a test of an as-yet-unanswered question: Can this economy continue to recover without massive federal support? Most economists believe it can—though you don’t have to search hard to find someone who thinks we’ll slip back into recession. Still, we’ll probably see rates rise a bit, plateau at their new level, and hold for a few months. Today’s lowest rates may vanish relatively soon.

Moving on to February and quickly.  Before we do, here is the wrap on Incline Village Real Estate and what happened here during the month of January!  If you have been following our posts you know the market keeps plugging along and January was no different.  It seems as if we have made the turn in the market with inventory slowing down and sales steady.

Let’s start with the current inventory:  125 Condos on the market, 39 PUDs or Planned Unit Developments, 152 Single Family Homes and 4 Investment Properties.

January Escrows:  15 Condos were in escrow, 10 PUDs and 21 SFH…no Investment Properties have been in escrow for more than a year now!  WOW!

January Sales:  7 Condos sold, 4 PUDs and 7 SFH.  Again, no sales in the Investment category.

Breaking it down further:

Condos:  50 condos currently active under $400K, 45 between $400-$600K, 17 active between $600K and $1Mil and 14 actives over $1Mil.

PUDs:  5 PUDs active under $500K, 22 between $500K and $1Mil and 12 over $1Mil.

SFH:  8 homes active under $500K, 37 between $500K-$1Mil, 27 between $1Mil and $1.5Mil, 22 between $1.5-$2Mil, 42 homes between $2-5Mil and 16 over $5Mil.  The luxury end of the market is drowning in inventory right now.

Click here for all the statistical data for the month and to view absorption rates for each price band too.

Steady, steady, steady and yes…Incline Village Real Estate is moving.  Contrary to all the negative news you hear in the media, Incline Village continues to move real estate as buyer understand the turn in the market and sellers (real sellers) are still very reasonable about the market conditions.  For the week of January 25th-31st 2010, the Incline Village MLS reported the following activity:

New Listings:  1 Condo (this one won’t last long), 1 PUD (Planned Unit Development) and boy do we know this complex first hand as we are living there throughout the remodel on our home, 3 Single Family Homes  (really only one of these is new, one is a re-list and the other was a realtor changing from one company to another) and 1 Investment property hit the market.  Is timing good?  In our opinion it could not be better.  Why wait for the flood of inventory to hit the market in late Spring/Early Summer as there will be more competition?  If you are serious about buying or selling now is the time!!!

Price Changes:  This week 4 condos and 3 single family homes reduced their price having missed the mark the first time around.  Do these new prices indicate a quick future sale?  The Forest Pines at $249K seems like a pretty good deal, but the rest have not yet hit the ‘Hot Buy’ category.

New Escrows:  This week 4 condos went into escrow, all under $400K including 2 Mountain Shadows units.  Also, 3 single family homes went into escrow this week with one over $4Mil.

Sales for the Week:  This week 4 condos closed  (all GREAT deals on low end condos) and 1 Single Family Home was lucky enough to find a buyer.  This home was on the golf course and sold for $1.4Mil.  Not sure that was a Hot Buy either, but it shows that there is a house for every buyer.

Market Rejects:  Slow going this week with only 1 condo, 2 PUDs and 5 single family homes (one of these homes was withdrawn to move from one brokerage to another).

Want an updated ‘Hot Buy’ sheet?  Click here for the weekly updated spreadsheet!

Signs in the market do not indicate a slowdown and as a matter of fact slow and steady seems to be the nature of the current market. During the week of January 18th-24th the following took place in the Incline Village Real Estate Market:

New Listings:  3 condos hit the market, 1 new PUD (Planned Unit Development) and 4 Single Family Homes.

Price Changes: 9 condos reduced their prices this week, 2 PUDs and 3 Single Family Homes.

New Escrows:  4 condos were the lucky recipients of an offer that was actually accepted, 1 PUD and 2 Single Family Homes.

Sales for the Week:  2 PUDs and 2 Single Family Homes closed and were able to move on.  Both PUD and SFH sales were GREAT deals for the buyers and probably a relief for the sellers.  Some of these homes have been on the market for over a year and a half.  Ouch!

Market Rejects:  4 condos were rejected by the market this week, 2 PUDs and 4 Single Family Homes although 3 of these were withdrawn due to an agent changing offices.

For all the best deals in the market, click here…

Lake Tahoe is not immune to foreclosures, short sales and distressed properties in general. In fact, one might argue that it is increasing in Incline Village, NV part of Washoe County, but looking at the statistics the number of foreclosures is trending downward over the last 6 months.  Currently there are 69 bank owned homes in Incline Village alone, almost 80 in pre-foreclosures and 42 scheduled for auction.  As of December 2009 RealtyTrac is reporting that 1 in every 655 homes in the 89451 zip code is receiving a foreclosure filing.  Yikes!  This my friends is still a VERY HIGH number.  See these additonal graphs from RealtyTrac as well that help explain what is happening and how it compares to the County level, State level and National level of foreclosures.

December 2009 Foreclosure Rate Heat Map

Geographical Comparison of 89451 Zip Code to different levels.

Foreclosure Activity By Month

Here is an update on Incline Village Properties as of 1/27/2010:

SOLD:  120 Country Club – Village at Incline #58, APN 130-180-58, Rec. 1/25/10, HSBC Bank Sarm 2005-18 Tr., Address N/A – Sold for $319,900

1351 Zurich Ln., APN 126-430-22, Rec. 1/22/10 – Sold for $249,000

123 Juanita – Forest Pines 1-72, APN 127-300-05, Rec. 11/4/09, Wells Fargo Bank, 475 Grosspoint Pkwy., Getzville, NY 14068– Sold for $280,000

120 Country Club – Village at Incline #58, APN 130-180-58, Rec. 1/25/10, HSBC Bank Sarm 2005-18 Tr., Address N/A – Sold for $314,900

 CANCELLED (Removed from list)

321 Ski Way – Mountain Shadows #39, APN 126-101-11, Rec. 1/8/10

825 Southwood – Southwood Pines #22, APN 127-110-22, Rec. 1/10/10

321 Ski Way – Mtn. Shadows #214, APN 126-152-20 

NEW NODs:

851 College, APN 124-082-16, Rec. 6/19/09, Campbell Court LLC, 1731 River Gorge Ct., Reno, NV 89521 – TRUSTEES SALE POSTPONED UNTIL FRI. 2/4/10 AT 11AM

857 College, APN 124-082-17, Rec. 6/19/09, Campbell Court LLC, 1731 River Gorge Ct., Reno, NV 89521- TRUSTEES SALE POSTPONED UNTIL FRI. 2/4/10 AT 11AM

855 College, APN 124-082-18, Rec. 6/19/09, Campbell Court LLC, 1731 River Gorge Ct., Reno, NV 89521- TRUSTEES SALE POSTPONED UNTIL FRI. 2/4/10 AT 11AM

929 Southwood – Pinewood #18, APN 127-490-03, Rec. 10/13/09 & 1/22/10

989 Tahoe Blvd. – Tahoe Racquet Club #52, APN 127-362-09, Rec. 1/22/10

751 Tahoe Blvd. – Toepa #19, APN 132-191-01, Rec. 1/22/10

872 Tanager – Pinebrook #40, APN 132-560-23, Rec. 1/21/10

321 Ski Way – Mt. Shadows #48, APN 126-102-06, NOD Rec. 3/24/09 – TRUSTEES SALE POSTPONED UNTIL MON. 3/22/10 AT 11AM BY HOA

699 Hogan #1, APN 129-100-01, TS#09-0078316, NOD Rec. 6/5/09 – TRUSTEES SALE POSTPONED UNTIL MON. 3/1/10 AT 11AM

Reinstated NOD (HOA has possession but not ownership of property) 

939 Incline Way – McCloud #216, APN 127-077-14, Rec. 9/4/09

For the entire list of distressed properties please click here.

1346 Tirol, APN 126-500-17, Rec. 1/7/10- SOLD FOR $290,000

NEW NODs:

978 Glenrock #13, APN 131-021-13, Rec. 1/6/10

770 Southwood – Southwood Glen #7, APN 132-280-07, Rec. 1/4/10

590 McDonald, APN 124-083-15, Rec. 1/4/10

 NEW NOTICES OF SALE:

851 College, APN 124-082-16, NOD Rec. 6/19/09 – TRUSTEES SALE SCHEDULED ON THURS, 1/28/09 AT 11AM

857 College, APN 124-082-17, NOD Rec. 6/19/09 – TRUSTEES SALE SCHEDULED ON THURS, 1/28/09 AT 11AM

855 College, APN 124-082-18, NOD Rec. 6/19/09 – TRUSTEES SALE SCHEDULED ON THURS, 1/28/09 AT 11AM

321 Ski Way – Mt. Shadows #48, APN 126-102-06, NOD Rec. 3/24/09 – TRUSTEES SALE SCHEDULED ON WED, 1/27/09 AT 11AM

1308 St. Gallen Ct. , APN 126-522-04, NOD Rec. 9/24//08 & 2/12/09– Bank & HOA – TRUSTEES SALE SCHEDULED ON WED, 1/27/09 AT 11AM

Diamond Peak Ski Team Celebrates Ullr Fest with the Community Incline Village, NV, January 29-30; Diamond Peak Ski Team celebrates Ullr Fest by extending an invitation to the community to join them for family fun and festivities beginning Friday through Saturday, January 29-30, 2010 at Diamond Peak Ski Resort. Families, coaches and community members will celebrate Ullr Fest at Diamond Peak Ski Resort, in an effort to bring the North Tahoe community together to celebrate and raise funds for childrens ski programs. Ullr is the Norse God of winter and will be honored in this community event hosted by the Diamond Peak Ski Team. Events include a Torchlight Parade with the ski team children, a Bon Fire Kickoff family night with live music on Friday. Ullr Fest continues with Ullr Games, dinner and auction on Saturday. This is a chance for families to unite in a common goal that supports ski programs for all children in our community, states Sabrina Gentner a ski team parent. The overwhelming support of sponsors including the Hyatt Hotel, Village Ski Loft, Dress the Party, Ace Hardware, Nevada Securities Bank, and Chase International speaks volumes for the onset of a successful event this January, states John Albrecht, Diamond Peak Ski Team Board Member. Diamond Peak Ski Team invites you to celebrate children, skiing and snow in the First Annual Ullr Fest, January 29-30, 2010. Diamond Peak Ski Team is a non-profit, ski education foundation offering children the opportunity to ski in the Lake Tahoe area. If you would like more information regarding their programs, please visit www.dpsef.org. Contact: Sabrina Albrecht Diamond Peak Ski Education Foundation sabrina@sbcglobal.net
Food and bevies available too!

The activity although not huge continues to be steady and for this time of the year…it’s GREAT!  Some homeowners stall putting their home on the market thinking that nothing sells at this time of the year, but we are here to show you that that is a farce.  There continue to be many homes sold during the winter months and often times it can be the best time of year as there is less competition than in the ‘high season’.

This week in the Incline MLS there were 5 new condos that hit the market, 3 PUDs (Planned Unit Developments or Free Standing Condos) and 4 Single Family Homes.

Since we are still in a market that seems to be adjusting, so do the minds of sellers, most of whom are adjusting their prices down to compete with the market although there was on price increase by $1000.  What is the logic on that?  hmmmmmmm  This week 6 condos had price reductions while 1 went up, 2 PUDs reduced , both in The Glenn and 5 single family homes are trying to get an offer as well.  Folks, these are properties to watch as they have home owners who are motivated or trying to be motivated by what is actually happening in the market.  They may be priced to go now and sometimes they still requiring some adjusting.  Speak with a knowledgeable agent who knows and understands the market and what is happening to find out what the ‘real’ price should be.

New Escrows:  It’s lucky number two this week with 2 condos, 2 PUDs and 2 SFHs going into escrow.  Exciting and congratulations to those buyers and sellers, you beat the competition or you are 1/2 way there anyway.

The lucky two’s continue for sales this week with 2 condos and 2 SFH closing their home sales.  I suppose congratulations are in order for sure here, especially to 682 Ralston who commanded more than the asking price in a market that usually sees the opposite.  Perhaps it was the listing agents (that would be presumptuous since it was our listing, ha ha) or perhaps the Seller is just a great negotiator or it could be such a great house that the buyers saw a deal and were willing to pay more to get it!

Market rejects are not surprising as most of these are priced too aggressively for the market and should readjust their pricing and or marketing before coming back on the market.  2 condo market rejects, 4 PUDs and Wow…4 of the 6 SFH that were rejected by the market were over $2Mil, interesting!

Moving on to 2010 and the activity seems to be keeping up as well. Although inventory has come to a slow down, the good ones are still getting picked up by some smart buyers.  If you are a buyer in this market, the timing is GREAT, if you are a seller in this market, you may be taking hit due to the economy but perhaps you can make up for it wherever you are taking your proceeds.

New Listings: 3 new condos and 4 single family homes hit the market this week.

Price Changes: 12 condos reduced their prices, 1 PUD and 8 Single Family Homes changed their mind about the price although not all were in the form of a price reduction. 7 homes reduced their prices while 1 is attempting to collect more. Not sure what market they are in, but we shall see.

New Escrows: 2 condos went into escrow this week, 2 PUDs and 4 Single Family Homes, that is exceptional.

Sales were slow with only 1 PUD and 2 SFH to report.

Market Rejects happen all the time. It’s okay, it just means you did not hit your mark the first go around. Now it’s time to get serious about the market and your pricing strategy. If the marketing is in place and your price is good you should see some activity and eventually an offer. If you continue to go week after week with still no activity, it is time to revisit the strategy!  This week there were 6 condos, 1 PUD and 7 SFH that missed the mark.

To view more great deals in the market and for updates on foreclosures and distressed sales, visit our website.

Who says the holidays are slow? In Incline, the market was almost as hot as the grocery store crowds.

This week there was quite a bit of activity and our office saw several walk in clients as well.

New Listings:   This week there were only two new listings both PUDs or Planned Unit Developments (Freestanding condos).   1324 Tirol is also back on the market with pre-approval from the 1st lien holder on this short sale.  What a GREAT deal at $285K.

Price Changes:  There were only three price changes…2 condos and 1 Single Family Home (SFH).  The Pinebrook condo at $81K is a short sale, but if you can get the bank to approve it…it’s a good deal.  The last two sold just recently for $89 and $90K.  The SFH on Sutro Court reduced to $410, but it’s not enough!

New Escrows:  This week there were a few escrows to report…1 condo, 1 PUD and 5 SFH were snapped up by busy buyers trying to get the deals while they are hot and interest rates are still low.  Beware looky loo’s as the longer you wait, the inventory is getting picked over and interest rates are on the rise.  You may be pricing yourself out of the market!

Sales:  This week there was only 1 closed transaction on a condo.  This was a GREAT deal on a nice, clean condo in Mountain Shadows.  Probably the best deal in that complex all year!

Market Rejects:  As expected the first of the year has come and gone and with that come a slew of market rejects and expired contracts.  Price, price, price!  If you have expired…check your price!  Also talk with an agent who is active in the market and truly understands what is happening.  This week 20 condos were rejected by the market, 4 PUDs, 18 SFHs and 1 Investment property.  Actually the investment properties were rejected altogether in 2009 with not one single closing. 

More next week!